Determination of some haematological parameters in malaria infected subjects in Usmanu Danfodiyo University Teaching Hospital (UDUTH) Sokoto, Nigeria

Since malaria parasites are able to attach to receptors on the red blood cell surface, it is expected that  malaria parasites may have effect on some haematological parameters. Haematological parameters are  often needed to assist in the management of malaria infection. The aim of this study is to assess the  effects of malaria parasites on some haematological parameters in Sokoto Nigeria. To investigate the  effects of malaria infection on red blood cells, white blood cells and platelets, 100 malaria positive adults  (15-60 years) attending Usmanu Danfodiyo University Teaching Hospital, Sokoto, Nigeria were enrolled  into the study for a period of seven months; April through October 2009. Malaria parasitaemia was  determined microscopically by stained thick film, packed cell volume (PCV) by microhaematocrit  method, while total white blood cell count (TWBC) and platelet count (PLC) by manual methods. The total  of 100 malaria infected patients and 50 apparently healthy malaria non-infected students were compared against PCV, TWBC and PLC values using student’s t-test. The results of PCV and PLC showed statistically significant decrease among malaria infected patients (p<0.05) while for TWBC there was statistically significant increase (p<0.05) among 18% of malaria infected subjects. When PCV, TWBC and PLC values of males and females infected with malaria parasite were compared, the PCV value showed statistically significant decrease in females (p<0.05), while TWBC and PLC values showed no statistically significant difference between males and females (p>0.05). These findings indicate that malaria infection has an impact on some haematological parameters, therefore, malaria infection in this community contributes to the severity of anaemia and thrombocytopenia.Key words: Malaria infection, packed cell volume (PCV), total white blood cell count (TWBC), platelet count (PLC), anaemia

RECEIVE SIGNAL STRENGTH PREDICTION IN THE GSM BAND USING WAVELET DECOMPOSITION

In this work, GSM receive signal strength was monitored in an indoor environment. Samples of  GSM receive signal strength was measured on a Mobile Equipment (ME). One-dimensional multilevel wavelet decomposition technique was used to predict the fading phenomenon of the GSM receive signal strength measured. Wavelet prediction revealed that the GSM receive signal strength is attenuated due to the slow fading phenomenon, which fades about 3 times faster than the radio wavelength. The prediction is further validated using probability density functions in terms of Gaussian and Rayleigh distributions. It is observed that, significant part of the signal strength measured is dominated by good signal (- 101 dBm to – 74 dBm) with an average of – 88.8842 dBm and the signal strength followed more of Gaussian than Rayleigh distribution. This confirmed the wavelet prediction.  http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/njt.v36i1.2

USE OF FUZZY LOGIC TO INVESTIGATE WEATHER PARAMETER IMPACT ON ELECTRICAL LOAD BASED ON SHORT TERM FORECASTING

Load forecasting guides the power company to make some decisions on generation, transmission and distribution of electrical power. This work presents a solution methodology, using fuzzy logic approach for short term load forecasting (STLF) for Adamawa State University, Mubi.  The proposed methodology utilized fuzzy reasoning decision rules that use the nonlinear relationships between inputs and outputs. The fuzzy logic model was developed in the Simulink environment of a MATLAB software. The model developed was able to forecast a day ahead load (kW) with a mean absolute error (MAPE) of 6.17% and it was observed that weather parameter (temperature) has significant impact on electrical load.  http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/njt.v35i3.1

Prediction of annual rainfall pattern using Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a double stochastic process in which one of the stochastic processes is an underlying Markov chain, the other stochastic process is an observable stochastic process. Hidden Markov model is very influential in stochastic world because of its uniqueness, double stochastic nature and independence assumption between consecutive observations. A hidden Markov model to predict annual rainfall pattern has been presented in this paper. The model is developed to provide necessary information for the farmers, agronomists, water resource management scientists and policy makers to enable them plan for the uncertainty of annual rainfall. The model classified annual rainfall amount into three states, each with eight possible observations. The parameters of the model were estimated from the annual rainfall data of Jos, Plateau state, Nigeria for the period of 39 years (1977-2015). After which, the model was trained using Baum-Welch algorithm to attend maximum likelihood. The model is designed such that, if given any of the three rainfall states and its observation in the present year, it is possible to make quantitative prediction on how rainfall will be in the following year and in the subsequent years. The test HMM1 was able to make prediction with 75% accuracy in state and 50% accuracy in observations. The accuracy level of the model shows that, it is dependable and therefore, information from the model could be used as a guide to the farmers, agronomists, water resources management scientists and the government to plan strategies for crop production in the region.Keywords: Markov model, Hidden Markov model, Transition probability, Observation probability, Crop Production, Annual Rainfal

Determination of safety distance for installing GSM mast in residential areas in Nigeria

Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) technology is one of the fastest growing technologies and most demanding application all over the world. But the health implication of its equipment used or  installed in residential area has become subject debate among Nigerian. This work, made an attempt to determine the safety distance for installing GSM mast in residential area by measuring power density radiated from the foot of the GSM mast at different distances; 10m, 15m, 20m, 25m, 30m, 35m, 40m, 45m and 50m. Fuzzy logic technique was used to forecast power density measured from the GSM mast as 38.9μW/m2, 9.26μW/m2, 9.30μW/m2, 9.24μW/m2, 2.47μW/m2, 2.47μW/m2, 2.38μW/m2, 2.37μW/m2 and 2.36e-6μW/m2. Specific Absorption Rate (SAR) is computed as 1.09e-4W/Kg, 2.60e-5W/Kg, 2.61e-5W/Kg, 2.62e-5W/kg, 6.94e-6W/Kg, 6.69e-6W/Kg, 6.66e-6/Kg and 6.63e-6W/Kg from the forecasted power density respectively. The calculated SAR is compared with the standard SAR values, for localize and whole part of the body (0.08Kg/W and 2.00Kg/W) given by the International Commission on Non – Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) and found to be far below recommended level. This work also, suggested that, 10m is a good distance for installing GSM mast away from residential areas.Keywords: Power Density, Fuzzy Logic, Risk, Distance, Specific Absorption Rate and Safet

Monetary Policy and Commercial Banks’ Performance in Nigeria

The study was carried out to examine the impact of monetary policy on commercial banks’ performance in Nigeria in a micro-panel analysis. Interest rate and money supply were used as proxies for monetary policy, while profit before tax (PBT) was used to represent commercial banks’ performance. Pooled regression, Fixed effect regression, and random effect regression were all carried out in the analysis. However, Hausman test revealed that fixed effect regression is the most appropriate. The results show that there is a positive relationship between banks’ profits and monetary policies as proxied by money supply and interest rate. However, interest rate was not statistically significant at 1% and 5% levels. This study therefore recommends that interest rate policy should be looked into by the monetary authority in a way that is friendly to loan advancement in the country. Key words: Monetary Policy, Fixed effect, Hausman test, Banks’ Profits, Nigeri

Mycological Quality of Powdered Herbal Medicinal Preparations Packaged for Human Consumption in North Western Nigeria

The increase in the consumption of natural drugs have made their use a public health problem due to its poor quality, presence of  fungal contamination and the risk of the presence of mycotoxins. This investigation was designed to throw light on the mycological and aflatoxigenic status of powdered herbal medicinal products marketed in North Western Nigeria. A total of four hundred and thirty two(432) powdered herbal medicinal preparations consisting of twelve(12) each from six(6) localities in each of the six(6) states’ metropolis of the North Western Nigeria were obtained. These samples were subjected to various analyses. The parameters measured were grouped as follows: level of fungal contaminations of fungi; frequency of distribution of  fungi and  mycoflora type present in the herbal preparations. Results indicated that all the four hundred and thirty two herbal medicinal preparations assessed did not comply with the maximum acceptable limit of 2x102 cfu/g for fungal load. The study showed that samples from Kaduna and Kebbi  had  a significantly  higher  mean fungal count (1.09x105cfu/g and 1.05x105cfu/g respectively) that were not significantly different (p?0.05), hence suggesting higher contamination with fungi. The least was observed in Zamfara state with the lowest mean value of fungal load. The statistical analysis showed that fungal load in Katsina, Sokoto, Kano and  Zamfara  states were  not the same but not significantly different (p?0.05). This suggested low level of contamination with fungi when compared with samples from Kaduna and Kebbi state. In terms of fungal distribution in  herbal medicinal preparations, this study indicated that  fungi of the genus Aspergillus spp and Penicillus spp were the most frequently isolated and were found to be higher in frequency of occurrence. Out of one thousand and ninety five (1095)  total frequency of occurrence of fungi in the herbal medicinal preparations, the total frequency of occurrence of Aspergillus spp in this study is seven hundred and seventy five(70.77%), Penicillium spp (n=190;17.35%); Fusarium spp (n=86;7.85%)  and Rhizopus spp (n=44;4.02%). In this finding it could be suggested that Aspergillus spp and Penicillium spp are the major contaminant of herbal drugs. In all the samples screened from the six states, higher level of contamination with Aspergillus spp were found. Among  the Aspergillus spp observed,  A. flavus, A. paraceticus, A. niger were the most frequently occurred fungi in the herbal medicinal samples suggesting that these type of fungi are the major contaminant of the herbal medicinal products in all the six states of the North West of Nigeria. The highest frequency of occurrence of fungi observed in samples from Kaduna 151(69.59%), Kano139 (72.02%),sokoto135 (73.37%), Kebbi127 (66.49%), Kastina112 (70.89%) and Zamfara111 (68.52%)  may be as a result of poor harvesting, processing and storage practice of the handler of the herbal products. The  means of  frequency of occurrence of fungal isolates in herbal preparations from the North Western Nigeria also showed that incidence of  Aspergillus flavus, Aspergillus paraceticus, Aspergillus niger and Penicillium spp were not significantly  different at p<0.05 but significantly higher than Aspergillus ochraceus and Aspergillus versicolor. The result obtained also indicates that Fusarium spp and Rhizopus spp were significantly the lowest. This result suggests that the samples of herbal medicines obtained in the North Western Nigeria is heavily contaminated with the fungal species of Aspergillus spp and Penicillium spp. Keywords:  herbal medicines, fungal contamination, North Western Nigeri

Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade In Nigeria

Volatile exchange rate makes international trade and investment decisions more difficult because volatility increases exchange rate risk. This study seeks to evaluate the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade in Nigeria on the basis of annual data from 1980 to 2013, which was obtained from World Bank Development Indicators (WDI). Exchange rate volatility, gross national product (GDP), investment, interest rate, import and export were used to capture the causal relationship between exchange rate volatility and international trade and also the long-run and short-run relationship between exchange rate volatility and international trade. A review of the literature reveals that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on international trade. The empirical analysis began with testing for stationarity of the variables by applying the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), this was followed by co-integration test, then the granger causality and the Error Correction Model (ECM). The co-integration test indicated that the variables are co-integrated which implies that a long-run relationship exist between the variables while the granger causality test showed that a causal relationship exist between international trade and exchange rate volatility. It was observed form the ECM analysis that exchange rate volatility negatively affects international trade. The study therefore recommend that the government should put in place exchange rate and trade policies that will promote greater exchange rate stability and trade conditions that will promote domestic production in the economy. In other to achieve this, the government should provide efficient infrastructural services like energy resources

Bridge Collapse in Nigeria: A Case Study of Tatabu Bridge in Mokwa Local Government Area of Niger State

Large parts of Niger State are located in low terrain and have proximity to River Niger: the largest river in Nigeria; coupled with the presence of three hydro Electric power stations in the state. Niger State has been confronted annually by flood disaster that has destroyed many lives and properties. The focus of this paper is to investigate the causes behind Tatabu bridge collapse. In this investigation, soil strength and index test, hydrological data, nature of the terrain, concrete strength test and evaluation of flood impact on the bridge and its embankments using ANSYS Finite Element Method were conducted. The results of the investigations revealed that the collapsed bridge was positioned within a valley as well as steady increase in precipitation from 2015 to 2017 which directly increased the stream flow rate and also runoff.  It was also observed that the debris settlement within the cell of the collapsed bridge contributed to reduction of the cross sectional area of single cell. The compressive strength test of the bridge members revealed that the strength are within acceptable limit. The authors recommended that there is the need for embankment protection either covers vegetation, stone pitch, slope stabilizer, or concrete interlocking is required for future consideration. Due to increase in water balance, the new bridge capacity should be increased to accommodate the high volume of water.  The new bridge should be reconstructed above the valley or repositioned away from the valley. it is also recommended that a complete replacement of the underlain material forming the adjacent slope to the bridge retain wall with a better compacted engineering soil to avoid future pavement failure of the kind. Keywords: Bridge, Flood, ANSYS, Collapse, Terrai

Hydroclimate in Africa during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is a recognized period of distinct pre-industrial climate change, with a core period of 1000–1200 CE. The field of palaeoclimatology has made major progress over the past 15 years during which a great number of high- and medium-resolution case studies were published, reconstructing climate change of the past millennia. In many parts of the world, regional data coverage has now reached a point which allows compiling palaeoclimate maps for well-defined time intervals. Here we present hydroclimatic trend maps for the MCA in Africa based on 99 published study locations. Key hydroclimatic proxy curves are visualized and compared in a series of 16 correlation panels. Proxy types are described and possible issues discussed. Based on the combined MCA dataset, temporal and spatial trends are interpreted and mapped out. Three areas have been identified in Africa in which rainfall seems to have increased during the MCA, namely Tunisia, western Sahel and the majority of southern Africa. At the same time, a reduction in precipitation occurred in the rest of Africa, comprising of NW and NE Africa, West Africa, Eastern Africa and the Winter Rainfall Zone of South Africa. MCA hydroclimate change in Africa appears to have been associated with characteristic phases of ocean cycles, as also supported by modern climate observations. Aridity in Morocco typically coincides with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), whilst increased rainfall in the western Sahel is often coupled to the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Reduction in rainfall in the region Gulf of Aden/southern Red Sea to Eastern Africa could be linked to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) or a derived long-term equivalent Indian Ocean cycle parameter. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) appears to have been shifted pole-wards during the MCA, for both the January and July positions. MCA hydroclimate mapping revealed major data gaps in the Sahara, South Sudan, Somalia, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, northern Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Special efforts are needed to fill these gaps, e.g. through a dedicated structured research program in which new multiproxy datasets are created, based on the learnings from previous African MCA studies